Pre-tourney Rankings
Atlantic Coast
2013-14


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
6 Virginia 100.0%   2   28 - 6 16 - 2 28 - 6 16 - 2 +17.0      +5.8 40 +11.2 3 58.4 342 +17.6 6 +21.3 1
8 Duke 100.0%   3   26 - 8 13 - 5 26 - 8 13 - 5 +16.8      +13.5 2 +3.2 89 67.5 184 +15.7 15 +14.8 4
17 Pittsburgh 96.0%   8   25 - 9 11 - 7 25 - 9 11 - 7 +14.4      +7.9 18 +6.6 32 63.3 288 +13.4 24 +12.1 5
21 Syracuse 100.0%   3   27 - 5 14 - 4 27 - 5 14 - 4 +14.2      +6.6 32 +7.6 21 57.9 344 +18.3 5 +17.4 2
28 North Carolina 100.0%   5   23 - 9 13 - 5 23 - 9 13 - 5 +13.2      +5.4 47 +7.8 17 77.3 21 +13.7 23 +15.0 3
43 Florida St. 32.5%   19 - 13 9 - 9 19 - 13 9 - 9 +10.5      +5.0 53 +5.5 50 70.2 115 +10.8 47 +9.5 8
48 Maryland 0.0%   17 - 15 9 - 9 17 - 15 9 - 9 +9.9      +2.8 107 +7.2 25 73.5 60 +8.0 69 +9.5 7
54 Clemson 4.4%   20 - 12 10 - 8 20 - 12 10 - 8 +9.3      +1.8 129 +7.5 22 55.6 349 +9.4 59 +10.4 6
66 North Carolina St. 29.5%   21 - 13 9 - 9 21 - 13 9 - 9 +7.8      +5.8 39 +2.0 113 68.3 162 +10.0 51 +9.4 9
73 Miami (FL) 0.0%   17 - 16 7 - 11 17 - 16 7 - 11 +7.1      +3.2 98 +4.0 73 53.6 350 +5.4 92 +6.2 10
88 Notre Dame 0.0%   15 - 17 6 - 12 15 - 17 6 - 12 +6.0      +6.4 33 -0.4 181 64.6 264 +4.8 102 +4.9 13
101 Georgia Tech 0.0%   16 - 17 6 - 12 16 - 17 6 - 12 +4.4      +0.6 157 +3.8 77 67.1 191 +5.3 95 +5.0 12
104 Wake Forest 0.0%   17 - 16 6 - 12 17 - 16 6 - 12 +4.0      +1.4 140 +2.7 98 71.8 83 +6.9 75 +5.5 11
130 Boston College 0.0%   7 - 24 4 - 14 7 - 24 4 - 14 +2.6      +7.0 26 -4.4 287 61.2 324 -0.4 173 +1.0 14
157 Virginia Tech 0.0%   9 - 22 2 - 16 9 - 22 2 - 16 +0.6      -3.0 257 +3.7 82 64.1 271 -2.5 205 -3.2 15





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Virginia 1.0 100.0
Duke 3.0 100.0
Pittsburgh 5.0 100.0
Syracuse 2.0 100.0
North Carolina 3.0 100.0
Florida St. 7.0 100.0
Maryland 7.0 100.0
Clemson 6.0 100.0
North Carolina St. 7.0 100.0
Miami (FL) 10.0 100.0
Notre Dame 11.0 100.0
Georgia Tech 11.0 100.0
Wake Forest 11.0 100.0
Boston College 14.0 100.0
Virginia Tech 15.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Virginia 16 - 2 100.0
Duke 13 - 5 100.0
Pittsburgh 11 - 7 100.0
Syracuse 14 - 4 100.0
North Carolina 13 - 5 100.0
Florida St. 9 - 9 100.0
Maryland 9 - 9 100.0
Clemson 10 - 8 100.0
North Carolina St. 9 - 9 100.0
Miami (FL) 7 - 11 100.0
Notre Dame 6 - 12 100.0
Georgia Tech 6 - 12 100.0
Wake Forest 6 - 12 100.0
Boston College 4 - 14 100.0
Virginia Tech 2 - 16 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Virginia 100.0% 100.0
Duke
Pittsburgh
Syracuse
North Carolina
Florida St.
Maryland
Clemson
North Carolina St.
Miami (FL)
Notre Dame
Georgia Tech
Wake Forest
Boston College
Virginia Tech


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Virginia 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2   36.6 47.8 14.0 1.7 0.0
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 3   6.3 30.6 45.1 17.4 0.5 100.0%
Pittsburgh 96.0% 0.0% 96.0% 8   0.1 1.9 4.6 19.3 30.2 25.5 11.9 2.4 0.0 4.0 96.0%
Syracuse 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 3   2.5 21.3 53.5 21.9 0.8 0.0 100.0%
North Carolina 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 5   0.6 8.7 40.9 37.3 12.2 0.4 0.0 0.1 100.0%
Florida St. 32.5% 0.0% 32.5% 0.0 0.1 0.9 14.4 17.1 0.0 67.5 32.5%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Clemson 4.4% 0.0% 4.4% 0.5 3.8 0.0 95.6 4.4%
North Carolina St. 29.5% 0.0% 29.5% 0.1 1.4 14.3 13.7 0.0 70.5 29.5%
Miami (FL) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Notre Dame 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Wake Forest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Virginia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Virginia 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 94.8% 65.5% 38.4% 20.7% 10.7% 5.1%
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 90.7% 61.3% 34.7% 17.8% 8.7% 4.3%
Pittsburgh 96.0% 0.3% 95.9% 60.1% 24.2% 11.9% 5.2% 2.0% 0.9%
Syracuse 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 84.6% 49.2% 22.5% 9.5% 3.9% 1.4%
North Carolina 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 64.5% 28.2% 11.5% 4.6% 1.5% 0.5%
Florida St. 32.5% 28.2% 18.8% 7.6% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Clemson 4.4% 4.3% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Carolina St. 29.5% 24.1% 15.1% 4.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (FL) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wake Forest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 5.6 1.6 44.6 44.0 9.5 0.3
1st Round 100.0% 5.3 2.6 65.7 29.1 2.6 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 4.1 0.0 0.3 4.1 20.6 41.1 30.6 3.3 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 97.0% 2.3 3.0 17.2 37.2 31.0 10.4 1.2 0.0
Elite Eight 78.5% 1.2 21.5 44.2 27.5 6.3 0.5 0.0
Final Four 49.0% 0.6 51.0 40.5 8.0 0.5
Final Game 25.6% 0.3 74.4 24.3 1.2
Champion 12.2% 0.1 87.8 12.2